According to a new study from FedEx, parcel carriers will collectively distribute 6.2 billion shipments across Europe between October and December 2024, 9% more than in the same period in 2023. Almost 70% of those parcels (4.2 billion) will go directly to consumers as the e-commerce sector continues to grow.
The independent study was conducted by Effigy Consulting, which analyzed its courier, express and parcels (CEP) database with 500,000 data points on more than 300 carriers in 41 countries across Europe.
The peak season, which includes Black Friday and the run-up to the festive holidays, is a critical time for European retailers and manufacturers, with around 30% of all volume for 2023 delivered in the last three months of the year. This highlights the importance of the so-called ‘golden quarter’ which carries 7% more volume than the average for the three other quarters, FedEx reports.
Wouter Roels, regional president of Europe at FedEx, commented, “Peak season is a critical time for the logistics sector and the countless businesses that we support. This year is expected to be the biggest since the pandemic for parcel deliveries, reflecting the strength of European e-commerce.
“Shipping across continents and countries is crucial to trade and growth, with this ‘golden quarter’ representing the difference between profit and loss for retailers and businesses. Alongside our customers, we’ve been preparing to ensure we make this peak a success.”
The countries with the highest volume of deliveries during this peak season are expected to be the UK (1.3 billion) and Germany (1.1 billion), followed by France with just over half a billion (524 million), with an average of 12 parcels delivered for every person in the UK and EU during the three-month period.
Europe is forecast to import more goods from outside the continent than it exports – for example, there is expected to be almost 200 million shipments coming in from China and the USA compared to 75 million going out. However, almost half a billion of the parcels shipped this peak season in Europe are expected to be exports, with Europe-based businesses shipping nearly 500 million parcels to other countries both inside and outside the EU.